At the end of June 2026, 37.243 million people lived in Poland, which is 90,000 fewer than at the end of 2025, according to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), published on Thursday, 15 October.
According to GUS, the actual population decline in the first half of the year was 0.24%. The office explains that the decrease results from negative natural increase, meaning the difference between the number of live births and deaths. It amounted to minus 95.2 thousand.
Births and deaths
According to preliminary GUS estimates, around 115 thousand live births were registered in January–June, about 1 thousand fewer than a year earlier. There were approximately 210.5 thousand deaths, about 2 thousand more than in the first half of 2025. The birth rate remained at 6.2 per 1,000 residents, while the death rate rose from 11.1 to 11.3.
GUS notes that natural decrease has been occurring since 2013. The cause is a low number of births, which, despite an increase in 2016–2017, is combined with a rising number of deaths resulting from the growing number and share of elderly people. For comparison, in the whole of 2025 about 238 thousand children were born and about 406 thousand people died, resulting in a natural decrease of roughly 168 thousand.
Cities, villages and migration
In cities, natural decrease amounted to 62.0 thousand, and in rural areas to 33.2 thousand. At the end of June, 22.095 million people lived in cities, just under 60% of the population.
Migration partly offsets the decline. According to the PESEL register, 9,926 people from abroad registered for permanent residence in Poland, while 4,319 left permanently. The balance is therefore positive (about 5.6 thousand), but much smaller than the natural decrease.
Comparison with previous periods
At the end of June 2025, 37.402 million people lived in Poland. On a year-on-year basis, the population therefore fell by about 159 thousand. According to GUS, the actual rate of decline in the half-year was minus 0.24%, while in the first half of 2025 it was one person per 10,000 residents less (23 versus 24 people).
What it means
Fewer births combined with a higher number of deaths means that society will continue to age. This affects the number of people of working age, contributions to the pension system, and demand for healthcare and services for seniors. In the short term, the positive migration balance does not offset the natural decrease. The data are preliminary and may be revised in GUS’s full annual publications.
Komentarze