After Tuesday’s elections in Israel, neither the bloc of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot has the 61 seats needed to govern in the 120-seat Knesset. The vote count is ongoing, and the outcome may depend on the Arab parties.
The Israeli Central Elections Committee reported that almost 5.7 million of some 7.3 million eligible voters cast ballots, or 77.7 percent. This is the highest turnout since 1999, CNN reports, citing the committee. During the night, the committee stressed that the data were preliminary and could change during counting and verification.
What the current results show
Full, official results are not yet known. According to israel.com, their confirmation is scheduled for November 4. Preliminary counting data and exit polls, however, paint a similar picture.
When a little over half of the votes had been counted, Haaretz reported that Netanyahu’s bloc had 56 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc 49, and the Arab parties (the Joint List and the United Arab List) 15. Likud had about 27 seats, and Eisenkot’s Yashar 22. According to the Jerusalem Post, on Wednesday morning television stations projected 27–28 seats for Likud and 21 for Yashar. Channels 11 and 12 gave the prime minister’s camp 57 seats, and Channel 13 gave it 53.
Overnight the picture shifted in Netanyahu’s favour. The first exit polls after polling stations closed gave the opposition a slight edge, but in later updates Likud gained, CNN writes. The same outlet reports that the Arab parties may win 17–19 seats, which would be their best result in history.
Who could form the government
A majority requires 61 votes. As CNN notes, Netanyahu’s camp does not intend to cooperate with the Arab parties, and some opposition politicians have also ruled this out. Without them, both sides struggle to assemble a majority.
After the results are announced, President Isaac Herzog will hold consultations with the parties and entrust the task of forming a government to the politician most likely to win the support of 61 members of parliament. Fox News points out that if Eisenkot secures recommendations from at least 61 MKs, he could receive the first mandate, even though Likud is the largest party. Axios assesses that with similar results Netanyahu could remain at the head of a caretaker government, while the opposition would gain control of the Knesset.
After the exit polls were released, Eisenkot said that „society voted for change.” Netanyahu, for his part, spoke as the one who, according to reports, had made up lost ground. Trump, in a post on Truth Social, credited his endorsement of the prime minister:
„When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole wave turned around, and now instead of the great prime minister’s decisive defeat, it looks like a great tie after making up lost ground, and even a VICTORY for Netanyahu.” — Donald Trump on Truth Social, October 28 (original)
Background and what comes next
The elections took place a few days after the attack near Hebron and the prime minister’s announcement of a sweeping operation, which we wrote about in our article on the closure of the West Bank after the attack. We described voting day in our report on Netanyahu’s fight to stay in power.
If coalition negotiations fail, Israel may return to the polls. The previous deadlock led to five elections between April 2019 and November 2022.
What it means
For now it is unclear who will form the government; until a new cabinet is appointed, Netanyahu remains acting prime minister. Real decisions are to be expected only after the official results are announced and consultations with President Herzog take place, that is, within days or weeks. For Poland, this means continued uncertainty about Israel’s policy toward the Gaza Strip and Iran, although the programmes of the two main rivals are similar on these issues.
