The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided at its meeting on 3–4 November to keep NBP interest rates unchanged. The reference rate remains at 3.75%.
The RPP announced its decision on Wednesday, 4 November, in the afternoon, with first reports appearing around 3:00 p.m. The meeting statement is published by the National Bank of Poland (NBP). According to media reports, the Council did not change any of its main rates.
What are the NBP rates
- reference rate: 3.75%,
- lombard rate: 4.25%,
- deposit rate: 3.25%,
- bill rediscount rate: 3.80%,
- bill discount rate: 3.85%.
The current level has been in place since March. At that time the Council cut rates by 0.25 percentage points, and this was its only change so far this year, according to Strefa Inwestorów among others. We reported on that decision in our article on the resumption of rate cuts in March.
In line with expectations
The decision was no surprise. As TVN24 reports, citing a PAP survey, only one of the 19 institutions surveyed expected a 25 basis point hike. Before the meeting, however, some voices did not rule out tightening policy. We had earlier reported that a Council member did not rule out a rate hike in November, and a new NBP projection was expected to be key.
Economists at Bank Pekao, quoted by the Nczas.info portal, wrote in a comment that October inflation data pushed back the idea of a November hike, but price pressure is not easing. In their view, rate hikes are the baseline scenario for early 2027. Meanwhile, an analyst quoted by Stockwatch.pl forecasts that rates will be held until the end of 2026 and does not rule out hikes at the beginning of next year. These are the economists’ opinions, not the Council’s position.
What it means
For holders of variable-rate loans, the decision itself does not change the cost of money on the NBP rate side: installments based on existing indicators will not rise because of the RPP decision. The rate was neither raised nor lowered.
Expectations of hikes in 2027 are already affecting the market. As Nczas.info reports, citing NBP data, in September the gap between fixed and variable rates on new loans was 0.31 percentage points, and in some banks’ offers it is now approaching 1 percentage point. People choosing a mortgage today must therefore weigh a higher fixed rate against the risk of rising rates in the future.
At the time of publication, the detailed breakdown of votes in the Council and the content of the NBP governor’s press conference, which usually takes place the day after the decision, are not known. According to finwire.pl, the next decision is due on 2 December.
