On Wednesday, 4 November, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will announce its decision on interest rates. The NBP reference rate stands at 3.75%, and the vast majority of economists expect it to remain unchanged.
The RPP met on Tuesday and Wednesday, 3–4 November, in line with the NBP schedule. As of the time of writing, the statement after the meeting has not yet been published. After the decision, the Council will also outline the latest inflation and GDP projection, which it publishes every year in November.
Where rates stand today
The reference rate has been 3.75% since 5 March 2026. At that time, according to the NBP statement, the Council cut it by 0.25 percentage points. The lombard rate is 4.25%, and the deposit rate is 3.25%. A year ago, in November 2025, the reference rate was 0.5 percentage points higher, at 4.25%. We previously reported on the cut to 4% in December 2025.
What economists forecast
According to a PAP Biznes survey, reported by TVN24, only 1 of 19 institutions expects a 25 bp hike. The rest expect the rate to be held at 3.75%. Three institutions do not rule out a hike by the end of 2026. Most respondents also assume no change in December and through the end of Q3 2027. They expect the first cut in Q4 2027.
According to finwire.pl, economists at mBank consider a hike more likely than leaving rates unchanged. This view departs from the consensus. Meanwhile, Monika Kurtek of Bank Pocztowy tells Zero.pl that she expects no change. She attributes this, among other things, to cheaper fuel. Business Insider writes that, thanks to low inflation, the chances of a hike have diminished in recent days, but economists do not rule it out in the future.
The backdrop to the decision is the inflation reading. According to an mBank Research post cited by Wprost, flash inflation fell to 3.5% y/y in October, which is at the upper edge of the NBP’s deviation band around its target (2.5% +/- 1 percentage point). Official data is published by GUS.
What it means for borrowers
If rates stay unchanged, repayments on variable-rate loans should not change because of the RPP decision. The interest on such loans depends on WIBOR plus the bank’s margin. According to finwire.pl, 3M WIBOR stands at 3.91%.
If the RPP raised rates by 25 bp, the repayment would be higher. Finwire.pl gives an example of a PLN 750,000 loan. Using the margin assumed by that portal, the monthly payment would rise from PLN 4,709 to PLN 4,823, or PLN 114 more per month. This is an illustrative calculation. The actual amount depends on the margin, the loan term, and when the bank changes the rate. Banks usually do so every 3 or 6 months, so any change would not affect the bill immediately.
We covered earlier decisions by the Council this year, including in our article on the January RPP meeting. The NBP will publish the statement after the current meeting on nbp.pl.
