Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, has announced that over the next 12 months airfares in Europe will rise by 10, 15, or even 20 percent. In his view, this will be „the biggest increase in airfares in history”.
O’Leary made the forecast on Tuesday, 20 October, at a press conference in Brussels. As reported by Reuters, and quoted among others by Irish broadcaster RTE, he said: „Next year airfares in Europe will go up, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20 percent.” He added that this would be the largest increase in history over the next 12 months. This is the airline chief’s forecast, not an official announcement of price increases on Ryanair’s tariff.
Two reasons: fuel and fewer seats
O’Leary cited two causes. The first is aviation fuel, which became more expensive after the outbreak of conflict with Iran at the end of February. Ryanair had then hedged 80 percent of its fuel needs at $67 per barrel until March 2027. For the following period, however, it has hedged only 15 percent of fuel costs at $85 per barrel. According to O’Leary, market prices are roughly twice as high.
According to the CEO, most European carriers face a similar situation. They had strong hedging in 2026, but from April 2027 few of them are protected against market price swings, as reported by Travel Weekly.
The second cause is supposedly a lower number of seats available on aircraft. O’Leary expects bankruptcies and takeovers among airlines next year, which will reduce supply. Together with expensive fuel, this could push prices up by as much as 20 percent.
Cuts in Belgium and Boeing aircraft
The Ryanair chief came to Brussels to announce the cancellation of 20 routes and over one million seats in the winter schedule to and from Belgium. This is a response to plans to raise Belgium’s air passenger tax from 2 to 7 euros per passenger from January. Polish media, including „Rzeczpospolita”, report that the changes may also affect connections to Poland, but the available materials do not confirm this.
O’Leary also spoke about the Boeing 737 MAX 10. He told Reuters that the manufacturer expects to obtain certification before the end of October, and Ryanair is „quite optimistic” that the deadline will be met. This would allow it to take delivery of 16 aircraft in early 2027.
What it means
The announcement concerns prices across Europe over a 12-month horizon, not specific routes. For passengers from Poland, this means that when planning trips for 2027, it is worth reckoning with tickets 10–20 percent more expensive than today. For example, a ticket costing 200 zloty could cost 220–240 zloty. This is an illustrative calculation, not a forecast for a specific route.
It is worth keeping the context in mind. O’Leary often makes bold price predictions. In May 2024 he warned that summer prices would be lower than earlier expectations, and in 2022 he told the „Financial Times” that Ryanair’s average fare would rise from 40 to 50–60 euros. Ticket prices depend on fuel costs, demand and seat supply, so the scale of increases may differ between carriers. At the time of publication, we did not know the reactions of Ryanair’s competitors, including Wizz Air and easyJet, to this forecast.
