The gas tariff for households could rise by as much as about 35% from 2027, according to an estimate by DM Trigon analyst, cited by the daily „Rzeczpospolita”. Citing a source close to the energy ministry, the paper reports that the government wants to return to freezing prices and compensating sellers.
The 35% estimate is not an official forecast from the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) or the gas seller. It comes from Michał Kozak, an analyst at DM Trigon, and is based on the assumption that the rise in gas purchase costs will be fully passed on to the tariff. The government plans are described similarly by „Rzeczpospolita”, based on an anonymous conversation. As of publication, the Ministry of Energy had not issued an official statement on the matter.
Where the price pressure comes from
As „Rzeczpospolita” reports, on Wednesday 29 October, the gas contract for November delivery on the Dutch TTF exchange exceeded 100 euros per MWh. According to the paper, this is the highest level since the second half of 2022. On Thursday, prices fell slightly below that threshold. EU gas storage is about 75% full, compared with 83% a year ago (data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, cited by the paper).
We previously wrote that the 2027 contract on TGE is the most expensive since 2023. Gas prices also rose after attacks on ships near Hormuz.
How the tariff works and where the 35% comes from
The current myORLEN tariff (formerly PGNiG Obrót Detaliczny) is valid until 31 December 2026. The gas fuel price in the most popular tariff groups is 19.729 gr/kWh, or about PLN 197/MWh. Subscription and distribution fees are added on top of this amount.
Kozak estimates that the cost of contracting gas for 2027 could be PLN 230–300/MWh. This would mean an increase of about 35% in the baseline scenario. Orlen told „Rzeczpospolita” that only the URE president can announce a price change, after a tariff procedure. It added that it is too early at this stage to predict the outcome.
According to a URE announcement, the regulator is approving gas sales tariffs for households for the last time for 2027. „Rzeczpospolita” writes that URE decisions are expected in December.
What relief is on the table
A source close to the energy ministry told the paper that the ministry has decided to intervene. The measures concern mechanisms from 2022–2024: a statutory price freeze and compensation for sellers for the difference between the statutory price and the URE tariff. A funding source is being considered, including the Price Difference Payment Fund, which is said to have over PLN 2 billion in surplus.
Kozak assesses that with about 60 TWh of gas sold under the tariff, full compensation would cost PLN 3–4 billion per year. This is more than the fund’s reserve. The paper writes that higher CIT revenues and concession fees could help. It also mentions possible compensation in electricity, where the government expects tariffs of PLN 550–570/MWh, compared with the current PLN 495/MWh for energy alone.
What it means for consumers
Households heating their homes with gas should expect a higher tariff from 1 January 2027 if no intervention takes place. The final price will be known after the decision of the URE president. Any freeze would require legislation and a government decision, and no draft has been published so far. It is therefore unclear what the statutory price would be or exactly who it would cover.
