The Lewiatan Confederation argues that Poland’s migration policy does not meet the needs of the labour market. It cites an estimate by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), according to which the number of employed people could fall by 2.1 million by 2035.
The 2.1 million figure comes from the PIE report „Consequences of Demographic Changes for Labour Supply in Poland”. According to the institute, this would mean a 12.6 percent decline in the number of employed people by 2035. The report was produced in 2024, mainly based on 2023 data, and PIE recalled its findings in October 2026, as described by Biznesinfo.
Where the gap comes from
The estimate stems from generational replacement. Around 3.8 million people are expected to leave the labour market, while about 1.7 million people from younger cohorts will start working. The difference is nearly 2.1 million.
This is a demographic simulation, not an unconditional forecast. It does not account for migration, growth in labour market participation, workers moving between sectors, or automation. The largest loss concerns industry: around 805 thousand people may leave, while the inflow of younger workers is estimated at 405 thousand, or about 400 thousand fewer. In education, the workforce may shrink by about 361 thousand, or 29 percent.
What employers want
As reported by Bankier, citing the agency Newseria, Lewiatan experts point to protracted and unpredictable procedures for legalising residence and work, which hamper recruitment. Nadia Winiarska, deputy director of the Labour Department at Lewiatan, says that construction, transport, industry and HoReCa face very large staff shortages. In her view, filling positions solely with local labour is often not possible.
Winiarska also argues that foreigners pay social security contributions and taxes and support economic growth. According to Bankier, economists at PKO BP estimate that maintaining the current labour supply would require a net inflow of nearly 1 million migrants over a decade.
How many foreigners already work here
Data from ZUS (the Social Insurance Institution) cited by media show that over 1.2 million foreigners work in Poland, mainly from Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia. However, these data date from the end of 2024.
What it means
For companies in industry, construction, transport and catering, the dispute over procedures means continued difficulty filling jobs. For workers, a shortage of hands may mean higher wages and easier job changes, as Biznesinfo points out. At the time of publication, we had not seen the government’s response to this appeal.
