Analysts at Disinfo Digest say Russian propaganda is using a Polish security operation on the border with the Kaliningrad Oblast to push two contradictory messages: one about panic, and one about Poland’s alleged preparations for war.
In a FIMI alert issued on 2 November, Disinfo Digest warned that Russian propaganda circles present the actions of the Polish Police, the Border Guard and the army in the Warmian-Masurian and Podlaskie voivodeships as part of a “alleged military plan” aimed at the Kaliningrad Oblast.
The centre described this in a post on X:
Two contradictory narratives
According to Disinfo Digest, the propaganda simultaneously mocks Polish services, presenting their actions as a sign of panic and unjustified fear, and creates an image of Poland as a state preparing a military provocation against Russia. The centre notes that the message suggests Polish institutions are deliberately exploiting a non-existent threat to justify strengthening border protection.
Analysts link this to an attempt to undermine the rationale for security investments, including the East Shield (Tarcza Wschód) programme. The message also seeks to frighten audiences with Russia’s nuclear potential, which could allegedly undo Poland’s and NATO’s defensive preparations within a few hours, and portrays Russia as a potential victim of the West. According to Disinfo Digest, this builds a justification for possible Russian actions, as responsibility for a future conflict is assigned to Poland and NATO. The narrative is reportedly being spread, among others, by Aleksander Kociuła.
Background: the security operation
The actions follow signals of possible sabotage near the border with Kaliningrad. We wrote about the creation of the operation’s headquarters in our article on the Police headquarters in Warmia, Masuria and Podlasie. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, for his part, said that the services had reacted to worrying movement at the border.
Police: notification over false reports
On Thursday, 5 November, the Police announced on X that a notification of a crime had been submitted to the National Prosecutor’s Office concerning the deputy Chief Commander of the Police, Deputy Chief Commissioner Dr Tomasz Michułka. It concerns insulting an officer and defamation through the dissemination of false information on social media. The posts suggested that he had ordered riot police units to be equipped with machine guns in order to use them against participants of assemblies near the Constitutional Tribunal.
The Police say that in reality, the decision to put forces on alert and equip them was driven by the need to counter possible acts of sabotage and subversion on the north-eastern border.
