Three weeks remain until the release of “GTA 6,” and estimates of pre-orders reach 6–7 million copies. Analysts quoted by “Rzeczpospolita” believe the success of Rockstar’s game may help CD Projekt, while making life harder for smaller Polish studios.
“Grand Theft Auto VI” is scheduled for release on Thursday, 19 November, on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Preload for buyers of digital versions is set to begin on 12 November. A PC version is not currently part of the launch plans.
Where the 7 million figure comes from and what is official
The order figure comes from estimates by the analytics firm Sensor Tower. According to “Rzeczpospolita”, three weeks before release this amounts to 6–7 million orders. As TalkEsport reports, according to Sensor Tower there were about 6.45 million digital orders worth around 630 million dollars as of 20 October. However, the publisher has not confirmed this.
Take-Two Interactive has not yet disclosed any figure. At its August earnings conference, CEO Strauss Zelnick called the level of orders “unprecedented and astonishing,” but cautioned that orders can be cancelled and it is unclear how they will translate into sales. For more on where the estimates come from, see our article on GTA 6 pre-sale revenue. Take-Two’s next results are expected to be published on 9 November (according to TalkEsport).
What this could mean for CD Projekt
Analysts at Ipopema Securities, Nikodem Kinel and Piotr Zielonka, believe that a successful launch will improve sentiment in the industry, but mainly towards studios making high-budget AAA games. In their view, the success of “GTA 6” will be an answer to questions about lengthening production cycles and high prices of such games. This is directly relevant to CD Projekt.
Mateusz Chrzanowski of Noble Securities assesses that Rockstar’s success may positively affect valuation multiples of comparable companies. In the Polish context, this means CD Projekt. In his view, it will also show where the ceiling of sales expectations in the AAA segment lies.
The company enters this period from a strong position. At the end of September, a refreshed version of “The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt” was released. According to “Rzeczpospolita,” the game has sold more than 65 million copies, and the whole series more than 90 million. Next year an expansion, “Songs of the Past,” is due, and a fourth Witcher instalment is announced for 2028. Co-managing director Michał Nowakowski said the expansion may be the first encounter with the universe for many players.
Smaller studios step aside
For smaller developers, the release is rather a problem. Ipopema points out that players’ time and attention are limited, and some of them will for a while “flow away” to “GTA 6.” PlayWay postponed the new edition of “Car Mechanic Simulator,” and CEO Krzysztof Kostowski admitted that “GTA 6” also had an impact. Dark Point Games is considering various scenarios for “Brightfall.”
What it means
For gamers in Poland, this means that fewer major releases will try to compete with “GTA 6” in November and December. For investors, analysts’ forecasts are assessments, not guarantees: the impact on CD Projekt’s share price depends, among other things, on whether the game sells well and how it is received. In Poland, about 400 game companies operate, employing several tens of thousands of people.
