The world economy at the start of 2025 is balancing between hope and uncertainty. Inflation is easing, but trade and political tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment. Let’s look at what is happening in the economy and what we can expect in the coming months.
Global economy 2025: stabilisation or a new era of uncertainty?
Although global GDP growth in 2025 is forecast at a stable level of 3.2%, it remains below the pace seen before the pandemic. Global inflation is expected to keep falling, averaging 4.1% in 2025, which gives consumers some relief but does not eliminate all risks.
Key trends:
- The continued resilience of the US economy, but with a marked slowdown in growth.
- A growing role of fiscal and trade policy at the expense of monetary policy6.
- Rising trade tensions, especially between the US and China.
- Price volatility and a return to more protectionist economic strategies.
Major economies: the US, Europe and Asia
US: strong fundamentals, but rising risks
The American economy, although still resilient, is slowing down. Growth forecasts for 2025 range from 1.3% to 2.1%. The main challenges are:
- New tariffs, which have raised import costs and affected consumer sentiment.
- A drop in economic confidence to levels not seen in decades.
- The risk of recession has risen to about 40%, although the baseline scenario assumes it will be avoided.
Europe: a gradual recovery
The euro area is slowly emerging from stagnation, with GDP forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2025. Falling inflation and lower interest rates support consumption, but political uncertainty in Germany and France, along with the risk of new trade barriers, is holding back investment.
Asia: leaders and laggards
India, Vietnam and the Philippines remain the engines of growth in the region, thanks to strong consumption and investment. China, meanwhile, is grappling with the consequences of trade tensions with the US, a crisis in the property market and weakening domestic demand. China’s GDP growth could fall below 4%.
The biggest challenges and opportunities for 2025
Challenges:
- Escalating trade wars and protectionism.
- Volatility in commodity and energy prices.
- Political risk in key economies.
- A slowdown in investment and consumer uncertainty.
Opportunities:
- Falling inflation may boost consumption.
- New technologies and the green transition as drivers of growth.
- A possible rebound in investment if trade tensions ease.
An economy in transition
2025 is a year of transition from the post-pandemic era to a new economic reality. The key words are uncertainty and flexibility, both for governments and for entrepreneurs. Closely monitoring global trends and quickly adapting to changing conditions will determine success in the months ahead.
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