On 3 December 2025, the Monetary Policy Council (PRP) decided to reduce the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) by 25 basis points. The reference rate has fallen from 4.25% to 4.00%, which is in line with the expectations of analysts and is a continuation of the monetary policy loosening cycle. This is already the sixth reduction in 2025, and the fifth in a row, which totals a reduction of 175 basis points. This decision was taken in the context of low inflation, solid economic growth and wage dynamics and consumption, allowing the MPC to further adjust interest rates.
Causes of reduction and economic context
The Monetary Policy Council justified its decision by the current development of inflation and its prospects in the coming quarters. In October 2025, CPI inflation was 2.8%, which is close to the NBP target of 2.5% with a deviation of 1 percentage point. Despite optimistic data on retail sales and consumption, inflation remains under control, allowing further reductions. The President of the NBP, Prof. Adam Glapiński, is to give a speech on December 4, 2025, which may shed more light on the Council's further plans.
The interest rate reductions in 2025 began in May (by 50 pb) and were then continued in July, September, October, November and December (each by 25 pb). This is the lowest rate since April 2022, which represents a considerable relief for the economy after a period of high rates in previous years.
Impact on loans and instalments: Relief for debtors
The interest rate reduction has a direct impact on the cost of loans, especially those based on variable interest rates such as mortgages and consumer loans. For borrowers, this means lower instalments, which is a kind of a "society gift" from the RPP.
According to expert calculations, the savings on the monthly mortgage loan can range from a dozen to nearly 200 PLN, depending on the amount remaining to be paid and the terms of the credit agreement. For example, for a typical mortgage loan of PLN 300,000 with a 25-year repayment period, a reduction of about PLN 100 per month by 25 b. This effect will be seen in the upcoming instalment calculations by banks, usually within 1-3 months of the decision of the RPP.
Jednak nie wszyscy skorzystają w równym stopniu. Kredyty ze stałym oprocentowaniem nie odczują zmian do końca okresu stałego oprocentowania. Ponadto, obniżka stóp wpływa negatywnie na oszczędzających – oprocentowanie lokat i obligacji spadnie, co zmniejszy zyski z depozytów. Dla gospodarki jako całości, tańszycreditmoże stymulować konsumpcję i inwestycje, wspierając wzrost PKB.
What to expect at the next MPC meetings?
The December decision was last in 2025. Subsequent MPC meetings will take place in 2026, according to the schedule: the first probably in January or February (the exact dates will be published by the NBP). Economists forecast further reductions if inflation remains low and there are no new risks, such as energy price increases or geopolitical tensions.
According to the analysis, the reference rate could fall to the vicinity of 3% in 2026, which would mean continuing to loosen monetary policy. The MPP has "a lot of time to pull the trigger multiple times", as experts have stated, given the stable macroeconomic situation. However, decisions will depend on new data, including projections of NBP inflation and economic reports. President Glapiński has previously signaled caution, but recent reductions indicate readiness for further steps.
In the global context, similar actions are taken by other central banks, such as the Fed or the ECB, which may affect the rate of gold and the attractiveness of Polish assets.
A chance to revive, but with caution
Obniżka stóp procentowych do 4% to pozytywny sygnał dla kredytobiorców, którzy mogą liczyć na niższe raty i większą zdolność kredytową. Jednocześnie stanowi wyzwanie dla oszczędzających. W perspektywie 2026 roku oczekujemy kontynuacji tego trendu, o ile inflacja nie zaskoczy w górę. Kredytobiorcy powinni monitorować komunikaty NBP i rozważyć refinansowanie kredytów, podczas gdy inwestorzy – dywersyfikację oszczędności. Decyzje RPP pokazują, żePolishgospodarka jest na ścieżce stabilizacji po burzliwych latach.
