The Monetary Policy Council (PRP) began 2026 with an important interest rate decision. At the meeting on 13-14 January this year, it was decided to keep it unchanged, which surprised some market observers, but was in line with the expectations of most economists. This is the first such pause after a series of reductions in 2025, which can signal the stabilisation of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
Details of the RPP decision
According to the Communication, NBP interest rates remain at the following levels:
- Reference rate: 4,00 % on an annual basis,
- pawn shop rate: 4.50% on an annual basis,
- Deposit rate: 3.50% on an annual basis,
- Rediscount rate of bills: 4.05% on an annual basis,
- Discount rate of bills: 4,10% on an annual basis.
Ta decyzja przerywa cykl sześciu kolejnych obniżek w 2025 roku, które łącznie zmniejszyły stopę referencyjną o 175 punktów bazowych. Ostatnia redukcja miała miejsce w grudniu ubiegłego roku, a teraz Rada zdecydowała się na “wcisnięcie pauzy”, by ocenić efekty poprzednich działań.
Reasons and economic context
MPC members, including Ludwik Kotecki, argued in favour of a breakto better analyse the impact of reductions on inflation and growth. The key factor is the upcoming revision of the inflation basket in March, which may affect future readings. Inflation of CPI in the second half of 2025 decreased to nearly 2.5%, which is consistent with the NBP target of 2.5% ±1 percentage point. The average annual inflation in 2025 was 3.6% and the 2026 forecasts indicate a decrease to 2.6%.
The economic situation in Poland remains stable, with a slight expansion of monetary policy. Interest rates are currently lowest since April 2022 and below the median over the last 26 years (4.25%). This is the result of a global fall in fuel and energy prices, as well as the effects of the statistical base.
Opinions of economists and future forecasts
Economists mostly predicted this decision, although the market is not sure how long the pause will last. The NBP survey among forecasters suggests stabilising inflation within target limits. In 2026, one to three further reductions of 25 basis points are possible, which could bring the reference rate down to 3,00-3,75% by mid-year. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for 3-4 February, which could bring new guidance.
What does this mean for borrowers and the economy?
For people with variable-rate loans, especially mortgages drawn before 2022, keeping their feet at the current level is a neutral message – instalments will remain stable and earlier reductions have already reduced the cost of debt.
Real positive interest rates (reference rate exceeds inflation over the last 12 months) support stability, but we are approaching the end of the monetary policy loosening cycle. This could mean that in 2026 the economy will enter a phase of sustainable growth without sharp changes.
Source: MPP press release
