In recent weeks, many Poles have been asking: why did the NBP Governor and the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) stop cutting interest rates? Find out what this means for WIBOR, the future path of rates and your loan repayments.
MPC decision – why were interest rate cuts halted?
At the beginning of June 2025, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The NBP reference rate currently stands at 5.25% and was not cut despite earlier market expectations. NBP Governor Adam Glapiński explained that although inflation is falling, new risk factors have emerged – including wage growth, strong retail sales and uncertainty over energy prices in the second half of the year. In addition, European Commission forecasts point to no fiscal tightening, which may keep inflationary pressure elevated over the longer term.
WIBOR and interest rates – current data
In June 2025, 6M WIBOR, the key benchmark for mortgage loans, stands at approx. 5.05%. This means that repayments on loans based on this indicator remain relatively stable. Experts stress that people who took out loans in recent months may already notice lower instalments – for example, the instalment on a PLN 500,000 loan over 30 years has fallen by PLN 274 compared with the previous half-year.
Current NBP interest rates (June 2025)
| Type of rate | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| Reference | 5.25 |
| Lombard | 5.75 |
| Deposit | 4.75 |
| Bill rediscount | 5.30 |
| Bill discount | 5.35 |
What next for interest rates and loan repayments?
Economists predict that further rate cuts could come as early as July, although this is not certain. Forecasts for the end of 2025 point to a possible decline in the reference rate to 4.5%, and to as low as 3.75% in 2026. Futures market quotations suggest that 6M WIBOR may fall to approx. 4.18% over the next six months, which would translate into further reductions in loan repayments.
What influences MPC decisions?
The Monetary Policy Council takes into account, among other things:
- the level of inflation and its forecasts,
- the situation on the labour market and wage dynamics,
- the pace of economic growth,
- changes in energy and commodity prices,
- the government’s fiscal policy.
It is a bit like driving on a slippery road – loosening monetary policy too quickly can end in an inflationary skid. That is why the RPP is choosing caution, waiting for more data.
The halt to interest rate cuts by the NBP Governor and the RPP reflects growing economic uncertainty and concerns about long-term inflation. Although loan repayments have already fallen, further relief will have to wait. The coming months will show whether the scenario of further cuts materialises and whether borrowers can breathe a sigh of relief.
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