India closes the water supply to Pakistan – are we in danger of a new crisis in Asia?

In recent days the tension between India and Pakistan has reached a dangerous level. India, after the suspension of the historic Indus Water Treaty, began to restrict the flow of water through strategic dams, which Islamabad considers a "act of war".

Source of conflict: Water as a political weapon

Water from rivers flowing from Kashmir is a matter of life and death for Pakistan – as much as 80-90% of the country's agriculture depends on the tributaries of Indus, Chenab and Dzhelam. India's decision to close the flow through the Baglihar Dam in Chenaba and the planned actions on the Kishangang Dam in Dzhelam could lead to drought, food crisis and even mass migration.

Indus Water Treaty – foundation threatened

Signed in 1960, the treaty guaranteed Pakistan access to western rivers and India access to eastern ones. He survived wars and crises until now, when India unilaterally suspended him after a terrorist attack in Kashmir. Pakistan is strongly protesting, threatening to respond "with full power".

Effects on Pakistan – real threats

• A possible drop in water levels of up to 25% this year, which threatens to break agriculture and food shortages.
• Lack of information on water discharges and flood risks, which increases the risk of natural disasters.
• The threat of sudden floods due to India's uncontrolled opening.

India – motives and consequences

India explains its actions by having to respond to terrorism and by wanting to put pressure on Pakistan to stop supporting the armed groups in Kashmir. However, it will take months or years to build an infrastructure for full water retention, and the threat itself destabilizes the region and fuels the war moods.

What's the threat of a water war?

Both sides refer to war rhetoric – Pakistan considers the water blockade to be a "act of war", and India does not rule out further military steps. In a region where access to water determines the survival of millions of people, conflict can quickly get out of control.

Water – a new front line

The water conflict between India and Pakistan shows how natural resources become a tool for political pressure and a potential war in the 21st century. Further developments depend on policy decisions and social pressure on both sides of the border.