WIBOR 3M first fell under psychological 5% in two years. Is this a lasting trend and what does it mean for your loan instalment?
What happened to WIBOR?
- The WIBOR 3M rate was 24 July 4,97%.
- Since the September 2023 summit, the decline has exceeded 150 pb – this is the result of two summer foot reductions by the MPP (total -75 pb).
- The next meeting on 7 August is a Non-detachable, so another possible reduction until September 3-4.
Will 5% defend itself?
Economists see space for further cuts, but only in the fall:
- The July NBP projection assumes the WIBOR 3M average 5,37% in the second half of the year.
- PKO BP expects a total -75 pb cut in 2025; reference target is 3.5%.
In practice, 5% can break through again, especially before the September decision. The rate of inflation decline and the gold exchange rate will be crucial.
Credit instalments – how much can you gain?
Objectives
- Credit: PLN 500 000
- Period: Option 30 years and 20 years
- Bank margin: 2,0% (typical at LTV ≤ 80%)
- Interest = margin + WIBOR 3M
| Screenplay | Interest rate | 30 years | 20 years old |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIBOR 3M 5.5%(beginning of the year) | 7,5% | PLN 3 496 | PLN 4 033 |
| WIBOR 3M 5.0%(now) | 7,0% | PLN 3 326 | PLN 3,830 |
| WIBOR 3M 4.5%(after further reduction -50 pb) | 6,5% | PLN 3 162 | PLN 3 636 |
Rates calculated by annuitet method – each drop of the foot by 50 pb is approx. 160-200 PLN relief per month at 500 k PLN.
What about a loan vacation?
The government has not announced new features of the program. For now, the only real relief is the fall of WIBOR.
What are the borrowers waiting for?
Key time limits
- 7 August – no decision.
- 3-4 September – full decision of the RPP, potentially -25 pb or -50 pb.
- November – a new inflation projection; if the CPI (consumer inflation rate) approaches the target of 3.5%, the cutting cycle will accelerate.
How to prepare a home budget?
- Leave the pillow – the installment may fall slower than the increase in inflation of services.
- Consider a fixed interest rate for 5 years if the bank offers <6% – it protects against foot reflection.
- Check whether overpayment of credit (even PLN 5 000) does not give more relief than deposit 6%.
WIBOR 3M already brought on average 170 PLN lower instalment for every 500 k PLN than in January. If the RPP cuts its feet by 50 pb, the installment may fall by another 160 PLN. The 5% barrier will therefore be tested, but lasting exit below 4.5% is the year-end scenario. Creditors must be patient – another relief is likely to come after September.
