In the latest parliamentary poll conducted by the Nationwide Research Group (OGB) for the Stan360 portal, there was an unexpected change on the podium. The Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), led by Grzegorz Braun, took third place with 11.18% support, overtaking its parent Confederation, which won 10.67%. The survey, conducted between 9 and 15 December 2025 using CATI on a representative sample of 1,000 people, points to dynamic shifts in Polish voters’ preferences.
Poll results in detail
According to the published data, the leader remains the Civic Coalition (KO) with 35.29%, although this is a drop of 2.7 pp. compared to the previous OGB survey. In second place, Law and Justice (PiS) strengthened to 31.21% support, an increase of 3.2 pp. The podium is completed by Braun’s KKP with 11.8%, increasing its support by 2.2 pp. The Confederation, previously the third-largest force, fell to fourth place, losing 3.3 pp. and recording 10.67%.
Below the electoral threshold were:
- New Left: 4.95% (+0.8 pp.),
- Razem Party: 3.33% (+0.5 pp.),
- PSL: 1.71% (-1.0 pp.),
- Poland 2050: 1.66% (+0.3 pp.).
In the seat simulation, KO would win 191 seats, PiS 178, KKP 48, and the Confederation 43. This means that only four groupings would sit in the hypothetical Sejm, and Donald Tusk’s government would lose its majority without coalition partners.
This poll is the first in which KKP overtakes the Confederation, which the media describe as a „crossing” on the right. The results were published on the X platform by the Stan360PL account, where they quickly sparked a heated debate.
What is the Confederation of the Polish Crown and Grzegorz Braun?
The Confederation of the Polish Crown is a right-wing party with a traditionalist character, founded in 2019. Its chairman is Grzegorz Braun, a Member of the European Parliament, film director and publicist, known for controversial statements and actions, such as extinguishing a Hanukkah menorah in the Sejm. The party emerged from a split in the Confederation Liberty and Independence, where Braun represented the „Crown” faction. KKP advocates Poland’s exit from the European Union, strengthening the role of the Catholic Church and limiting immigration.
Braun, elected to the EP in 2024, is building his popularity on anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian slogans, which attract voters disappointed with mainstream right-wing politics. The party has been growing in strength since the 2025 presidential election, expanding its local structures and regularly crossing the electoral threshold in polls.
Comparison with previous surveys
In the November OGB poll, KKP had 8.94%, which was already a record at the time, but still behind the Confederation (13.97%). In the December Opinia24 survey, Braun’s party reached 10.1%, closing in on its rivals. The upward trend for KKP has been observed since July 2025, when it debuted with 7.27%. Meanwhile, Sławomir Mentzen’s Confederation is losing support, falling from 15-16% in October-November to the current 10.67%. Analyses suggest that right-wing voters are migrating to KKP in search of „real change,” as the party’s supporters put it.
PiS is making up lost ground, which commentators link to criticism of Tusk’s government on economic and health issues, such as the bankruptcy of the National Health Fund (NFZ). KO maintains its lead but is losing ground to the right.
What next for the Polish right?
The rise of KKP may mean further fragmentation of the right, weakening both PiS and the Confederation ahead of any possible early elections. Experts point out that Braun’s party is benefiting from growing dissatisfaction with the government and anti-EU sentiment. This poll underscores the polarisation of the political scene, where extreme views are gaining strength. For voters, it is a signal that the pace of change in Poland is accelerating.
