In the latest parliamentary poll conducted by the National Research Group (OGB) for Stan360, there was an unexpected change on the podium. The Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), a party led by Grzegorz Braun, took third place with the support of 11.18%, ahead of the home Confederation, which gained 10.67%. The survey, carried out on 9-15 December 2025 by CATI method on a representative sample of 1,000 people, indicates dynamic changes in the voting preferences of Poles.
Survey results in detail
According to published data, the leader remains the Civic Coalition (KO) with a score of 35.29%, although it is a decrease of 2.7 pp compared to the previous OGB study. Second place was strengthened by Law and Justice (PiS) with 31.21% support, which means an increase of 3.2 pp. The podium closes KKP Grzegorz Braun with a score of 11.8%, increasing the support by 2.2 pp. Confederate, the third force so far, dropped to fourth place with a loss of 3.3 pp and a result of 10.67%.
Below the electoral threshold are:
- New Left: 4.95% (+0.8 pp.),
- Total Party: 3.33% (+0.5 pp.),
- PSL: 1.71% (-1.0 pp.),
- Poland 2050: 1,66% (+0.3 pp.).
In the simulation of KO mandates, it would gain 191 seats, PiS 178, KKP 48 and Confederation 43. This means that only four groups would be in the hypothetical Sejm, and Donald Tusk's government would lose the majority without coalitions.
This survey is the first in which the KKP overtakes the Confederacy, which the media refer to as a "mijanka" on the right. The results were published on the X platform by Stan360PL account, where they quickly sparked a stormy discussion.
Who is the Confederation of the Polish Crown and Grzegorz Braun?
The Confederation of the Polish Crown is a traditional right-wing party, founded in 2019. Its president is Grzegorz Braun – Member of the European Parliament, film director and publicist, known for controversial statements and actions such as extinguishing the Khanuk's menory in the Sejm. The party derives from a break in the Confederation of Freedom and Independence, where Braun represented the faction "Koron". KKP advocates Poland's exit from the European Union, strengthening the role of the Catholic Church and limiting immigration.
Braun, elected to the EP in 2024, builds popularity on anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian slogans, which attracts the electorate disappointed in the mainstream right. The party grows stronger after the 2025 presidential election, expanding field structures and noting the regular electoral threshold in the polls.
Comparison with previous studies
In the November poll OGB KKP had 8.94%, which was already a record at the time, but still behind the Confederation (13.97%). In a December review24, Braun's party reached 10.1%, approaching rivals. The growth trend for KKP has been observed since July 2025, when it debuted with 7.27%. In turn, the Confederation of Sławomir Mentzen loses support, falling from 15-16% in October-November to the current 10.67%. Studies indicate that right-wing electorate migrates to KKP in search of a "real change", as commentators of the party comment.
The PiS is making up for losses, which the commentators associate with the criticism of the Tusk Government on economic and health issues, like the NFZ bankruptcy. KO holds the lead, but loses to the right.
What next for the Polish right hand?
The increase of the NCC may mean further fragmentation of the right, weakening both the Law and the Confederation from possible accelerated elections. Experts indicate that Braun's party benefits from growing discontent with the government and anti-EU sentiments. This poll highlights the polarization of the political scene, where extreme views gain strength. For voters it is a signal that the dynamics of change in Poland is accelerating.
